War in the Middle East, Hamas and Israel
By, Jeremy Reif, CRPS
Who:
For those who have not heard of Hamas. Here is a quick rundown of who they are.
Why:
Why should we worry about Hamas and the geopolitical war? Hamas and Israel have a long-standing and deeply contentious relationship characterized by conflict, hostility, and sporadic periods of ceasefire negotiations. Hamas has engaged in numerous rocket attacks and clashes with Israeli forces over the years, aiming to resist Israeli occupation and seek Palestinian statehood. Israel, on the other hand, views Hamas as a terrorist organization and has implemented a blockade on Gaza to prevent weapons smuggling. Prior to this most recent attack, the two sides have engaged in several military conflicts, including the one in May 2021, resulting in civilian casualties and exacerbating tensions. While there have been attempts at mediation and ceasefires, the fundamental issues at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the status of Jerusalem, borders, and the rights of Palestinian refugees, remain unresolved, making the relationship between Hamas and Israel a central and volatile element of the broader Middle East conflict.
How:
Now that there is an understanding of Hamas, how could this affect the United States? This goes back to a few different things. The US has viewed Hamas as a terrorist group in the past. Will the US try to keep out of wars that have little to nothing to do with the USA? Will the US continue to withdraw and be withdrawn from war to prevent a repeat of Iraq? Even though the location of this war is not technically on oil-saturated ground it is very close. All countries still rely on petroleum-based products and it becomes a geo-political thing. A war in the Middle East could rapidly change the petroleum industry supply, demand, and the logistics of importing and exporting it. The US would prefer to continue to not have to build pipelines or harvest our own oil supplies, leaving the US on the edge of its seats.
Logic:
During COVID-19 the entire world saw how the “just-in-time delivery” has had its share of shortcomings and delays of goods and services. This war could also have a cause and effect on recovering supply and demand chains. The Middle East controls a lot of the world’s oil supply and could easily become a tipping point for any country from OPEC to join either side of the cause.
If the US were to interject themselves into this war, there are many things to think about. History tells us that War is good for the economy and potentially politics. As the USA and other countries try to get inflation under control, the Biden administration has lost a lot of faith in their constituents while in office. If history repeats itself, war sometimes has helped look past previous political shortcomings. War helps the economy in several areas such as industry and technological advancements, job creation, economic stimulus, export opportunities, and infrastructure development.
This begs the question, could or would the USA enter this war? Would it be a surprise if they did? War might stimulate and be the opportunity to change the focus from the Biden administration and the poorly handled Federal Reserve fighting inflation to a War and oil prices.